Meanwhile, Tucker Carlson released a documentary on his network on the ‘real story’ of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. In response, the FBI created a special crisis account on X, putting the administration at loggerheads with its high-profile ally.

As that was unfolding, long-time Trump booster, Stephen Bannon, while fighting for populism in public, was revealed as being all over the Epstein Files in private.

With the economic and political headwinds facing the White House, the infighting and contradictions within the MAGA movement have reached fever-pitch levels.

Is this the beginning of the end? Is Trump 2.5 giving way to Trump 0.5?

Zero Hour

President Trump stands at the ultimate inflection point in his presidency. With a string of stinging political losses, he faces a multifaceted rebellion from within the GOP. MAGA faithful are rising up while the perpetual Republican establishment bucks his broader calls for alignment. This is partly due to early positioning for the 2026 and 2028 electoral cycles. It is, however, more about the fracturing of an always improbable coalition rife with paradoxes.

In response to the dissent, the mercurial president has deployed his most familiar defense: a scorched-earth offense. Yet, in that course of action, he may induce a retreat of his own frame to his former self, restoring the markings of the mid-point of his first term: Trump 0.5.

Then, he was very much alone, had discarded his populist cloak for mundane Republicanism, and was still attacked by all sides. Gary Cohn walked the West Wing, and soon after, John Bolton flew on the wings of Air Force One. There was no MTG yet. Tucker Carlson was still on Fox News. Elon Musk was a Democrat. Epstein had not yet been arrested. Generation Z was just entering adulthood. COVID and inflation were unknowns. The Israel Lobby was too taboo to discuss.

President Trump faces a choice at this pivotal moment: continue down the current path reducing his presidency to a coterie of supporters or renew a big-tent push to be the pragmatic bridge between the elite and a base motivated by populism.

Trump 2.5 or Trump 0.5.

The Rise of Trump 2.5

On July 13, 2024, the day Donald Trump was nearly assassinated. It was an earthquake in the political zeitgeist. Elon Musk endorsed him. Mark Zuckerberg called him “badass.” The ‘coolest’ figures online from Sneako to Theo Von to Adin Ross backed him; when he won, they all showed up to the inauguration. Yes, it was ‘cool’ for a very brief moment to be all the way with the Donald for a subset of the electorate.

“If President Trump had won re-election in 2020, it would have been a continuation of the first term, with slightly more accomplishments, the same fecklessness, and infighting to jockey for the future of the Republican Party. It would have been Trump 2.0. Instead, in an almost Lazarus-like moment, Trump’s return and decisive victory give him an unprecedented mandate. His organization has clear capabilities that were missing in the first term. The current president is no ordinary second-term president. He has had four years to regroup, understand who his opponents are, and ensure that there is an effective team. The trials and tribulations he faced also led to newfound allies beyond the inner group from 2016 and 2020.” p.44-45, Trump 2.5: A Primer

In the early days of 2025, despite all the vitriol, the DOGE destruction, the cold raids by ICE, and the shock-and-awe of tariffs, the President barely lost a step in the court of public opinion with his supporters, maintaining his approval ratings. When he spoke of peace in the halls of Riyadh’s palatial settings, amidst the billions of dollars flowing including to his allies, it was a stark juxtaposition . And he followed his words by meeting with Syria’s president, a former leader of Al Qaeda.

Trump 2.5 was not about either/or. It was about both/and. He hadn’t abandoned Israel; the antisemitism task force targeting its critics was in full force. He hadn’t given up on America’s vast military-industrial complex; everyone from Larry Fink to Elon Musk was on that trip and ready to partake in the riches. As the president returned to Washington, his second 100 days were being primed to go as well as the first for his base.

The End of the Honeymoon

In retrospect, the month that followed was the end of the beginning. Elon Musk emerged in the Oval Office upon his ‘retirement’ from government service with a black eye that remains unexplained to this day. He went on X, announced that Trump was in the Epstein files, and claimed to be setting up a new party. Then the administration backed Israel in a widening war in the Middle East and initiated an American-led attack on Iran. And the Epstein files, in the middle of all of this, were cast aside with a perfunctory 2-page memo released on the July 4 weekend.

Nevertheless, despite the pushback, the Rorschach of Trump held the movement together. Like all followers and their centripetal leaders, blame fell to the people around Trump, not on the president himself: He was being ‘led astray’ by advisors, by his chief of staff, by outsiders texting him at late hours.

This all changed at the beginning of September when Charlie Kirk was assassinated. What may have been a unifying moment became a breaking point, as key figures sought to elevate their narrow agendas in his image.

In the weeks prior, to avoid potential fallout from a vote on the release of the Epstein files, Speaker Johnson shut down the House. By the end of September, the government itself shut down due to a lack of a continuing resolution. President Trump shifted his focus abroad and announcement after announcement with billionaires by his side. With Congress out of session and the president seemingly detached from domestic affairs, the November 4 electoral results were a rude awakening.

Mamdani takes Manhattan. Virginia goes blue. Democrats had wind in their sails. Republicans were in disarray.

In response to the results, the president doubled down. As the affordability issue cast a long shadow across the political spectrum, he held a private dinner for bankers and billionaires at the White House. With greater calls for transparency from his base, the president instead attempted to browbeat congresswomen in the situation room to vote against the release of the Epstein files.

This prompted a severe backlash online, with prominent figures directly attacking President Trump from within the MAGA movement, a previous red line. Marjorie Taylor Greene stood prominently among them.

Was this the end of MAGA? The end of Trump 2.5?

Populism, Purity and Pragmatism

What made Trump 2.5 politically poignant was an unyieldingly America First position. While polarizing, brutal, and assuredly slightly authoritarian, it was populist and popular with his supporters. Jobs for citizens before immigrants. American interests before foreign ones. Peace, not war, as the first resort. Main Street over Wall Street. The heartland was the new center, not Washington, D.C. The end of waste, fraud, and abuse and the return of domestic investment would give way to a new golden age.

Ultimately, the rhetoric of pragmatic populism pushed Trump 2.0 to Trump 2.5 and engendered an inconceivably diverse governing coalition that built momentum in early 2025. Tulsi Gabbard was shoulder-to-shoulder with Marco Rubio. There was a green light for an outside hammer from DOGE, but also the insider track from Susie Wiles. Yes, to Israel, but no to Israel’s wars. Deals for billionaires, but to create jobs, not greed, grift, and graft. At least that was the message on paper.

Trump, his presidency, and the movement were accessible to the everyday American, online and offline. Candidate Trump was on every podcast and in every public setting. He styled himself as the man to lead a lost generation Z of men. With the initial euphoria across the first 100 days, and before any foreign trips, it was a honeymoon, and Trump 2.5 maintained the aura of pragmatic populism within the MAGA movement.

Crossing the Crucible

It could be asked today, where is the rhetoric of the forgotten men and women, and the end of forever wars? Where are the Generation Z podcasters? Where have all the Trump 2.5 cowboys gone? This fall lull may yet give way to the big-tent version of Trump who campaigned in 2024.

The crucible moment that the president now finds himself in was always inevitable. It was exacerbated by foreign trips and too many meetings in the Oval Office rather than gatherings with his base in Ohio, Oklahoma, Idaho, and across the country. Ultimately, the president was only hearing part of the message from his own movement.

“As always, it will come down to outcomes. If, by the midterms, there is demonstrable progress on government efficiency, economic growth, global conflicts, and immigration, that will overshadow much of the overreach undertaken to achieve it.” – p. 173, Trump 2.5: A Primer

With just under a year to go, the president needs to have a hard reset to regain momentum, prevent a lame-duck presidency, and avoid a relapse to Trump 0.5 and the Grand Old Party. While some in the MAGA movement may look to 2028 and a post-Trump future, there is no MAGA without the man and myth that is the Donald, for better or worse. Without the bombast of Trump, there will be no railroading of an establishment that his base desires. Donald Trump is both the problem and solution for the movement’s biggest internal detractors.

There is a playbook for the White House to return to Trump 2.5. It starts with a re-embrace of pragmatic populism with real results. It also includes a renewed big-tent approach and an open door to messaging to all parts of the movement, online and offline. The president himself is in constant motion, and his own adaptability, which some would call opportunism, enabled him to return to the presidency in 2025.

Late into Sunday evening (Nov 16), ahead of another weekly political cycle, President Trump gave his full backing to Tucker Carlson, did not condemn Nick Fuentes, and called on his party to vote for the release of the Epstein files. It was the beginning of his answer for the moment to bring back momentum.

Thanksgiving Dinner

As zero hour approaches, there is a narrow window to shift course. This Thanksgiving, if President Trump is smart, he will host dinner at the largest table possible. Susie Wiles would have to use all her shrewdness to bring everyone into the fold. Elon Musk. Tucker Carlson. Mark Levin. Stephen Bannon. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Bill Ackman. Bishara Bahbah. Larry Fink. Sean O’Brien.

The message at that dinner is that they should be thankful they have access to power, because in a few years, they may not. And in fact, they could become the targets of those in power. Their only chance to win is to emerge with an ‘America First,’ populist pact that permits private gains only if there are public gains.

Will this happen? Is it too late? Was Trump 2.5 just a mirage? And could it even hold? For the GOP, it is simply the only way forward to maintain power. For MAGA to have relevance. For President Trump to be effective. Whether or not that would be good for America and the world is another question.

It was exactly three years ago that a Special Counsel was appointed to investigate Donald Trump. That was meant to be the end for Trump 1.0. And instead it was the beginning of the rise of Trump 2.5.

The next political cycle is already being written before the ink is dry on this one.

Stay tuned.

Zohran Kwame Mamdani. Mayor Mamdani. Let that sink in.

Meanwhile, on X, right-wing influencer reactions ranged from rage to racism, or a combination of both. It was the second coming of the Third Reich. The onset of an Islamic State. The Sovietization of Wall Street. Or all of the above.

But it was clear that this sponsored messaging, which had reached a fever pitch before the election, had failed. And the loss was not just a defeat. It was an obliteration. In New York. In New Jersey. In Virginia. And across ballot measures nationwide. Mamdani’s victory represents the beginning of a bulwark against Trump 2.5.

It is the start of a Manhattan Project to save the Left in America.

From Woke Evangelism for Empire to Populism

The projection onto Zohran Mamdani of labels of terrorism was flimsy to begin with. It was a ham-fisted attempt to galvanize Jewish New Yorkers and perhaps others into voting against a perceived threat. Yet, it had the converse effect. It only reinforced the message that Mamdani was a populist. And Generation Z, most of whom grew up in the shadow of the War on Terror rather than the 9/11 attacks, saw in the messengers everything they hated about the establishment.

‘Free Palestine’ itself has become an anti-system battle cry over the last two years. While the October 7 attacks provoked outrage initially, by the time of this mayoral election, more Americans had become more outraged about the response to those attacks. Even young Jewish Americans decidedly backed Mamdani.

The more the well-funded online campaign and crudely put-together coalition attacked Mamdani for not being in lockstep with a neoconservative foreign policy, the more he came across as bucking the system. The same system that keeps rents high. The same system that is broken. The same system presided over by boomers.

While the Biden Administration and its aspiring successor in the Kamala campaign represented woke evangelism for empire, Mamdani and his acolytes represent woke populists against empire. And that is a message that resonates. In that sense, they echo aspects of the MAGA movement.

A Vibe Shift Within the Vibe Shift

In an earlier article last year, I wrote “There’s a Vibe Shift in the Empire” following the election of Donald Trump:

“The anti-government feeling of the shift also leads to rejecting all establishment directives, whether from academia, experts, or the media. Why should there be censorship of misinformation? For Generation Z, which freely streams content, why would the government or an ‘expert’ limit what they can say? The vibe shift of the current moment ironically very much echoes the 1970s. It dovetails, however, with the vibe shift of the 1950s, marrying ‘fighting the man’ with the promise of a ‘new American dream.”

The MAGA spin on this was to restore a sense of traditionalism while also taking on a capitalist bent. Due to the prevailing environment of ‘wokeism,’ MAGA appeared to represent the anti-orthodoxy. Yet, in the first 10 months of the Trump administration, it has focused endlessly on antisemitism, replacing one form of speech monitoring with another, including on the right. The administration has also sued countless media outlets for defamation, leading to repercussions, including for flailing late-night talk show hosts like Jimmy Kimmel and Stephen Colbert. Perhaps it was good political fodder for the base, but it played against the vibe shift for free speech.

Meanwhile, as the cost of living has risen, health costs have skyrocketed, and unemployment has ticked up, the White House has simply rolled out announcement after announcement of ‘billion-dollar’ deals with billionaire magnates and trillion-dollar global funds. This left the vibe shift up for grabs.

During the campaign, Trump convened a big-tent coalition that brought together all the leading podcasters popular with Gen Z, from Theo Von to Joe Rogan to Adin Ross to Andrew Shultz. The outright racism online unleashed over the last several months has slowly hollowed out support to just core advocates. One by one, prior supporters have expressed unease with the current administration.

Then, out of nowhere, riding the N train, came Zohran Mamdani, smiling, showing up at the club at 1 am. Quite obviously, he was cool, and his opponent, Cuomo, decidedly uncool. And he was ‘for you’. For the ‘forgotten man’. The taxi driver. The halal cart worker. The street micro-entrepreneur. Shultz even gushed over Mamdani.

MAGA Gets Conned Inc

What happened to the MAGA Movement? Ultimately, the GOP without Trump is a failed party. Trumpism is not Republicanism. In the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, the Republican candidates were Never Trumpers. In 2022, the Republican Party was trounced in the midterms.

Yet there is no real MAGA movement. It is a coalition that only Trump could preside over, bringing technologists like Elon Musk, populists like Stephen Bannon, Gen Z podcasters, evangelicals, Dearborn’s Arab Americans, and hardline pro-Israel Jews in New York into one big, big tent. President Trump, however, has not governed like candidate Trump.

Accordingly, the technologists are fighting with the populists. Generation Z got bored and then perturbed. The pro-Israel camp has cast aspersions on the Arab Americans. And Trump himself has spent too time focused abroad. An America First administration, seen as an America Abroad presidency, was destined to suffer in popularity.

The Trump White House has also engendered a perception that it is a get-rich-quick platform for the billionaire class. Trump did not take union leaders to Riyadh for his landmark investment forum. He took magnates Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, and other technologists who had opposed him politically. His political advisors did not set up meeting grounds for the forgotten men and women of America in Washington. Instead, his donors set up the ‘Executive Branch’ for confabs of capital.

Entrenched interests have wrested the administration’s agenda, ensuring that the focus is on stock market highs, bellicose rhetoric about empire, and culture wars. It is the playbook of a Republican Party that was already in deep decline for years.

Results over Resistance

Before his victory, Mamdani stood relatively alone, with tepid endorsements even from his own party. On November 5, he has the wind in his sails. Nothing attracts losers like winning. Even Bill Ackman pledged to work with Mayor Mamdani.

Mamdani’s victory is not just about a Muslim immigrant success story. It will constitute a Manhattan Project to build the resistance to Trumpism in earnest. And as such, many people will flock to sit under this new political umbrella, much as happened with President Trump on January 20, 2025. The aim will be to co-opt the moment to create campaigns and coherence for a national effort, with New York as the testing and meeting ground.

Nevertheless, Zohran Mamdani is not the flip side of Donald Trump. And his movement is not ‘bizarro’ MAGA. Nor is his victory just another act in the long-running theater of right-left politics. His triumph is an opening for something new. In that way, the oldest rule in politics becomes the most important to note: there are no rules.

As Zohran Mamdani awakens to a city that is now his to lead, he can move in whatever direction he chooses. Of course, his opponents will still project labels onto him. But it will be those who claim credit for his victory that will attempt to pigeonhole him and his policies the hardest, sometimes to his detriment. And others onside, who seek to leverage his victory for political gain, will be even harder to keep at bay.

For Mayor Mamdani and those who support him, what will speak volumes will be the results. Results will lead to success and more winning. Can Mamdani balance capital with conscience to bring about more affordability? Can he marry an abundance mindset with a disposition towards empathy for the downtrodden to foster social balance? Can he re-empower police in communities to become symbols of safety that reinforce law and order?

Can he rise to the occasion to become a leader for all tribes and classes in the new American era?

Tomorrow is Another Day

Today is a day that belongs to the winner. To the new mayor of New York City. Zohran Kwame Mamdani.

But tomorrow is another day.

Politics, especially now, rewards dynamism and adaptability, with constituencies and coalitions reshuffling overnight. As momentous as Mamdani’s win is, it will also come and go. The world is changing at breakneck speed, and that will not let up, regardless of political events. In six months, new crises will emerge, as will new opportunities.

As the vibe shift in the vibe shift begins, Mamdani’s Manhattan Project will follow one of two paths: one that creates and becomes a source of energy for a new America. Or another that destroys and erodes the potential for renewed promise and a united country.

It is a monumental challenge that now sits on the shoulders of the youngest leader of the world’s leading city in 133 years.

It was President Donald Trump himself who talked about the current negotiations forging a new dynamic to break the trajectory of thousands of years of history. There is debate on how far back to trace the historical enmity that prevails today. Nevertheless, it has indeed been millennia since all peoples, and the three Abrahamic faiths specifically, converged on a united position on Jerusalem.

Many prior agreements have fallen short in finalizing peace. The Abraham Accords. The Roadmap to Peace. The Oslo Accords. Camp David. And beyond. Ultimately, they involved political persuasion, legal frameworks, and pageantry.

Of course, these aspects are important. But more is needed. We must accept that our world has moved beyond the nation-state framework and tribalism. Today, what holds things in place more than anything is power and the ultimate materialistic motivator: money.

Ignoring this dimension will mean that failure is inevitable. The financial construct to shift incentives, however, cannot be superficial or peripheral. It must be central and overwhelming. Furthermore, it must be established before, not after, a negotiated settlement, at least as a formal mechanism. It is the promised incentive to forge a settlement today.

The last chapter of Middle East in Crisis & Conflict: A Primer released last year presaged the contours of the current discussions on the Gaza crisis. In fact, the deal brought by President Trump is similar to what many policymakers, leaders, and analysts have roughly outlined for quite some time. Then, as now, it is not enough for the long peace. As the primer echoes, “These steps, already perhaps unrealistic, would still be insufficient. This is obvious to even the casual observer. Pipe dreams for peace are part of the realpolitik scenario.”

A central idea in the book and raised elsewhere, such as at the Milken Conference in Los Angeles in 2024, was the Arab Peace Investment Dividend, “a $1 trillion investment fund that will flow directly into the Israeli and Palestinian private sector the day after a peace deal is signed. With a 10-year time horizon, $100 billion will be funded and disbursed year-on-year. It would be the greatest investment dividend per capita in modern history. It shows actual skin in the game by global and regional actors in peace. And it demonstrates to Israelis and Palestinians alike the financial upside in a financial world.”

A trillion-dollar fund for peace seems like a pipe dream, but with nearly $5 trillion of sovereign capital situated in the region, it is much closer at hand. With interconnected capital flows, it is hardly a stretch to see other sovereign wealth funds from Europe and East Asia join in, alongside pension funds from North America. Development finance institutions, more broadly, could also be added to the table. There is no doubt that the investment could be mobilized and committed with the right political push.

Unlike prior proposals, this would not be a conceptual talking point but a fully formed legal entity, with strict guidelines on the types of recipients who would have to originate from, be based in, and serve the region and interests of peace. While the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 provided the political capital for a common future, the Arab Peace Investment Dividend would provide the investment capital for shared prosperity.

Of course, President Trump must also be brought onside, who would be one of its biggest advocates. It may need to be renamed to the Abraham Peace Investment Dividend, to match the style with the substance.

Now is the time for this investment initiative to take hold. Yet, without a transformative figure taking the mantle, it will still fall short. It is only natural that it should have a convener of stature, perhaps a leader of one of the Gulf countries themselves. That leader would also give it an inspiring vision and sense of purpose, which is what would sustain the long peace and provide it with the depth to survive.

Today is the moment for boldness. Who will take the mantle of leadership not just for profit but also for peace?

The world is waiting.

In a tumultuous region, Qatar had been an oasis of stability. It had managed to navigate controversies related to its conflicting relationships for years. While it was caught in the crossfire of the conflict this summer between Iran and the United States when Iranian missiles struck the Al Udeid base, it seemed, after the fact, more like an orchestrated series of events.

After the October 7 attacks by Hamas two years ago, it was likely that Israeli retaliation could find its way to Doha. Conversely, the opposite occurred. Qatar’s leaders became key nodes for both Israeli and American officials, with the director of Mossad making routine visits. Perhaps it was not that surprising. After all, Qatar was one of the first Gulf nations to publicly establish a link with Israel all the way back in 1996.

At 3:46 p.m. local time, Tuesday, September 9, the feeling of impermeability evaporated as more than 10 missiles crashed into a building where Hamas officials were meeting, killing five of the group’s members as well as one Qatari security officer. Unlike the 2017 Gulf blockade, this was an unobstructed military strike within the country’s territory, not simply an outside pressure campaign. The alliance with America, the hosting of Central Command, and the hundreds of billions of dollars committed to invest in the United States did nothing to stop it.

The Israeli strike in Doha, with the world watching, represents a watershed moment not just for Qatar but also for the wider Middle East. It is the beginning of sovereignty.

While the immediate rhetoric will be sharp, the follow-on actions will be muted. More telling will be the subtle shifts to help prepare for a sovereign future.

Sovereignty in Stasis

On August 2, 1990, as the Cold War was ending and Pax Americana was searching for a footing, Saddam Hussein ordered Iraq’s forces to invade neighboring Kuwait. A petrostate effectively under American protection, this was a red line. It was also the first test of America as the now sole superpower. The Gulf War established a clear red line in the so-called rules-based order, or what we know simply as the American order.

America directly enforced that standard in defense of its allies in the region. Progressively, as this reality became more entrenched, American military capabilities were integrated heavily into the security architecture of the Gulf, even while the optics of American military bases faded. As Saudi Arabia discussed normalization with Israel, on the table was a fully-fledged American defense pact.

Countries in the Middle East have witnessed direct violations of their borders before, as seen in 2003 and the U.S. invasion of Iraq, for example. Yet this precedent often involved countries outside of the American order. When Israel would act, it would mostly be deferential to the American framework.

The consequence of this architecture was an abdication of regional sovereignty. In the Middle East, it meant that countries were empowered so long as they fully integrated into the American security architecture, at the expense of any independent military or industrial apparatus.

For countries that chose this approach, everything seemed to be working out.

Searching for Threats

After the October 7 attacks, and since the Trump administration came to power in particular, the fig leaf of notional sovereignty has fallen by the wayside in the Middle East and around the world. Even in areas within the American orbit and core geographies of interest, there is no longer any umbrella protection. While America may not intervene today, it still mediates when two allies confront each other.

For Gulf countries, that offers no solace. Although the last decade witnessed a dramatic increase in defense investment and a close relationship with America, Qatar’s air defenses were absent in the face of Israeli strikes; even if they were not activated for political reasons, there is little doubt that they would not be able to match Israel’s firepower. Localized power that is not deployable or effective remains a line item on a balance sheet.

Qatar and other countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are not naïve. They recognize this. But there is still a large gap between recognition and capability. Even Qatar, which had heightened awareness of its fragility resulting from the 2017 crisis, has been unable to truly harness its sovereignty.

The United States will still arm and support its allies – for a price – but it is up to each country to defend its interests. Additionally, in the Middle East, Israel has a ‘hall pass’, meaning its imperatives sit above all others. The assault in the heart of Doha made it clear that Israeli power remains uncontested as the country assumes a broader imperial footprint in the region. It means that every border is subject to negotiation.

In the past, countries outside the American orbit in the Middle East were the ones that might come under fire. Today, any country with perceived strength and autonomy is seen as a threat by Israel. Non-adherence to Israeli demands may also lead to an overt or covert attack.

This is most acute for countries like Turkey today, but tomorrow it could mean Saudi Arabia is in the crosshairs.

Beginning of Real Sovereignty

Real sovereignty means real power, not silky displays of hardware. Further integration into the American imperium could temporarily stave off encroachment. But this would not be the case vis-à-vis Israeli interests. For the smaller Gulf states, it may translate to seeking protection from new alliances.

There are few allies to turn to that possess indigenous power not subject to American whims—Iran, China, Russia, North Korea, and now perhaps Turkey. Most likely, an intersection of alliances represents the greatest protection moving forward. This will include states acting like mercenary protectors, who will take on the risk for a sizable reward.

This will contribute to a re-ordering in the Middle East of regimes and borders, which could be redrawn. More likely, the re-ordering will be subtle, reflected in two levels of sovereignty: real and phantom. Phantom sovereigns will either be subsumed by the growing Israeli imperial footprint or develop external protectors that can mobilize – a big if.

Tone Deft

For the time being, Israeli dominance will prevail. It will eliminate or diminish all the threats it can and attempt to subjugate any emerging force. Turkey, however, appears to be already capable of asserting its sovereignty.

For Gulf states, the choices are not clear. Can they go deeper into the American orbit? Is true indigenous capability possible? The stronger they get, the more likely it is that they will face opposition from Israel. Is there an external power outside of America that can provide sustained protection?

For the rest of the Middle East, there will be deft approaches to try and thread the political needles, as attempted by Syria’s nascent rulers. That path is fraught, and for most, it will not be successful.

A new sense of malaise across the Middle East appears inevitable. In the long horizon, however, it may yet prompt a new dynamic that could surprise.

If the moment is seized, the beginning of sovereignty is a blessing in disguise. It represents, for the first time, an opening to reimagine the region beyond the recurring reality of today.

Less than two weeks after his victory in the presidential election, Donald Trump attended a UFC fight at Madison Square Garden in New York. He was hosted by UFC CEO Dana White, a close personal friend. In the crowd were his core base of supporters – young men. Seated to his left was the billionaire Elon Musk. Yet, the individual seated to his right also caught the eyes of many; chatting away with the president-elect was Yassir Al-Rumayyan, the governor of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). It was a demonstration of the intimate integration of the Kingdom in Trump’s orbit, and a sign of things to come.

Trump’s Gulf moment comes at the outset of his administration’s next 100 days. When the president made a memorable trip to Saudi Arabia in 2017, the focus was regional. This week’s trip has broader global dynamics at the forefront, from geopolitical deal-making to generating investment deals for the America First agenda. With expectations sky high, there will also be skepticism. Yet the potential is there for Trump’s Gulf trip to catalyze significant gains for the region and beyond.

The details | What Trump wants

Trump’s trip to Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi has three principal focus areas.

• “Peace through strength” — After a period of sabre-rattling on various fronts, the administration sees the Gulf trip as an opportunity to cement peace agreements with the Houthis, on Gaza, and beyond. Although Saudi-Israel normalization appears off the table, other dramatic forays, such as informal engagement with Iranian officials, interactions with the Syrian and Palestinian leadership could occur. It remains to be seen if there will be progress concerning Ukraine to announce, where KSA and the UAE have been active mediators.

• Investment — Wildly ranging investment figures have been bandied about ahead of the trip. Over $2 trillion of (re-packaged) announcements could be tallied across the three countries, but the details and timeline will likely remain in the air. While the highlight is the ‘MAGA in the desert’ conference today (May 13) in Riyadh, robust deals have also been put together under the supervision of Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed (TBZ) in Abu Dhabi.

• Energy — The most significant gap between Gulf and U.S. officials relates to energy prices. President Trump considers lowering oil prices a signature initiative. Current price levels are insufficient to balance regional budgets, but this may be the cost of doing business with the Trump administration.

The details | What the Gulf wants

In many ways, Gulf leaders are getting what they want by being the prize of Trump’s eye and his first formal destination as president. Three overall priorities stand out.

• Defense and protection — All three countries seek longer-term defense arrangements with the United States as the overall nature of American power and the rules-based order shift. In addition to security agreements, they are also seeking to obtain new weapons systems, from fighter jets to missile defense shields.

• Economic partnerships — Although the Trump administration is focused on outward investment flows to America, the Gulf countries will seek to encourage inward investment and economic partnerships, particularly from large capital holders. There will be a desire to demonstrate the trip as a win-win arrangement for the region, rather than simply extracting gains for the president.

• Access to technology — With Saudi Vision 2030 underway and a robust institutionalized focus in Abu Dhabi, the Gulf is playing a key role in relevant new technologies, notably crypto and artificial intelligence. Most of Elon Musk’s companies, and others like OpenAI, have existing deals with the region’s sovereign wealth funds. During the visit, Gulf leaders will seek increased access to proprietary AI and computing technology.

How it may unfold

The three days of Trump’s visit consists of a bonanza of events and spectacles. Footage from the trip is already dominating the media cycle, which will also be driven by headline investment announcements. There will be a concerted effort to announce longer-term peace agreements. In this spirit, even if the Trump administration can’t manage a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, it will settle for a short-term one.

On the ground | What happened?

The President’s trip to the Gulf region unfolded like clockwork. Pageantry and protocol were front and center. In addition, a range of deals were announced, potentially totaling $2 trillion. Yet it was underwhelming on the geopolitical front, with limited movement on intractable challenges. The groundwork, however, could generate more tangible results in the months ahead.

Overall, the trip set a precedent for future foreign missions. Other countries will also note the level of investment and the optics involved.

On the delegation itself, the president was accompanied by a range of administration officials, notably:

• Chief of Staff Susie Wiles

• Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio

• Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick

• Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent

• Secretary of Energy Chris Wright

• Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth

• Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff

In addition, prominent business leaders joined most aspects of the trip, including:

• Alex Karp (Palantir)

• Alexander Wang (Scale AI)

• Andy Jassy (Amazon)

• Arvin Krishna (IBM)

• Ben Horowitz (a16z)

• Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber)

• Elon Musk (SpaceX, Tesla)

• James Quincey (Coca-Cola)

• Jane Fraser (Citigroup)

• Jeff Miller (Halliburton)

• Jenny Johnson (Franklin Templeton)

• Jensen Huang (NVIDIA)

• Jon Ballis (Kirkland & Ellis)

• Kathy Warden (Northrop Grumman)

• Kelly Ortberg (Boeing)

• Larry Fink (BlackRock)

• Lisa Su (AMD)

• Lorenzo Simonelli (Baker Hughes)

• Patrick Soon-Shiong (Los Angeles Times, ImmunityBio)

• Ray Dalio (Dalio Family Office)

• Ruth Porat (Google)

• Sam Altman (OpenAI)

• Stephen Schwartzman (Blackstone)

• Tim Sweeney (Epic Games)

• Travis Kalanick (CloudKitchens)

• William Meaney (Iron Mountain)

• William Oplinger (Alcoa)

Finally, in addition to the regular press pool, the president was joined by Fox News hosts Sean Hannity and Brett Baier, who conducted interviews during the trip.

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

As the first stop and with the most high-profile event – the Saudi-US Investment Forum – Saudi Arabia was the highlight and showcased the largest potential business deals, even if all have yet to materialize. The president’s speech at the forum was his clearest articulation of the administration’s foreign policy since coming to office.

Itinerary (May 13-14)

• On Tuesday morning, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met President Trump at the airport. They later had a formal bilateral meeting, joined by officials on both sides. During this meeting, a number of agreements were signed, including on defense cooperation, economic partnership, and energy/critical minerals.

• He later traveled to the Saudi-US Investment Forum and then joined a state dinner in the evening.

• On Wednesday, President Trump participated in the Gulf Cooperation Council leaders' meeting before departing for Qatar.

Business Outcomes

The official readout of the trip provided a figure of a $600 billion investment commitment from the Kingdom. Others have estimated that the figure is just shy of $300 billion. Yet, the most tangible numbers are the $142 billion in defense agreements, $20 billion by Datavolt for data centers, and likely $30 billion for NVIDIA and AMD from the new HUMAIN entity.

Geopolitical highlight

The most notable development of the trip was President Trump’s face-to-face meeting with the Syrian president, Ahmed Sharaa. In public remarks, he also announced that the U.S. would be lifting sanctions on the country.

Notable quote

“It’s crucial for the wider world to note this great transformation has not come from Western interventionists or flying people in beautiful planes giving you lectures on how to live and how to govern your own affairs.”

- President Trump at the Saudi-US Investment Forum (May 13, 2025)

Qatar

The visit to Qatar provided tangible investment returns, particularly in aerospace, but also prompted momentum on the hostage negotiations amidst the ongoing Gaza crisis.

Itinerary (May 14-15)

• On Wednesday evening, Emir Tamim bin Hamad met President Trump at the airport and then at the Amiri Diwan, where a bilateral defense agreement was signed. This was followed by a state dinner.

• The next day, the president participated in a business roundtable, during which several business deals between the two countries were discussed.

• He later visited Al Udeid Air Base, which is located in the country, to meet with the troops before flying to Abu Dhabi.

Business Outcomes

In Doha, Qatar Airways signed the largest deal of the trip, ordering $96 billion worth of Boeing aircraft. The country also committed to purchasing $42 billion worth of weapons, including a $1 billion purchase of drones from Raytheon. An interesting announcement related to a $1 billion investment for quantum computing in Quantinuum.

Geopolitical highlight

While no significant peace deals were made on Gaza during the visit, just prior, Hamas released Edan Alexander in negotiations largely facilitated by Qatar.

Notable quote

“We're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace. And if we do that, it will be fantastic.”

- President Donald Trump at the Business Roundtable in Doha, Qatar (May 15, 2025)

United Arab Emirates

The trip’s final stop lasted two days and focused in part on the integrated nature of the AI and energy sectorsin both countries.

Itinerary (May 15-16)

• On Thursday afternoon, President Mohamed bin Zayed received President Trump. The first stop in the country was a visit to Sheikh Zayed Mosque, followed by a bilateral meeting similar to those in the other Gulf capitals.

• The following day, President Trump participated in a business forum that included presentations on notable investments by sovereign wealth funds in the United States. This was followed by a visit to the Abrahamic House.

Business Outcomes

Prior to the Gulf trip, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, the brother of the President, visited Washington, D.C., and made a $1.4 trillion investment commitment over ten years. This trip promoted tangible announcements as part of that, with a stated total of $200 billion. Publicly, the most prominent of these was Etihad's purchase of aircraft worth $14.5 billion and the investment of $4.5 billion by Emirates Global Aluminum into Oklahoma. There was also an announcement that an oil and gas consortium would generate $60 billion in investment.

Geopolitical highlight

The Abraham Accords from the first term have seemingly been overtaken by other geopolitical developments half a decade later. Look for the UAE to play a more significant role in the Syria, Gaza, and Iran files in the coming months as they reassert relevance to US foreign policy priorities.

Notable quote

“We're looking at Gaza. And we're going to get that taken care of. A lot of people are starving.”

- President Donald Trump at the Business Forum (May 16, 2025)

The way forward

The trip is just the beginning of a deepening set of relationships across Trump’s four years in office between the U.S. and the Gulf. Compared to the first term, there is much more scaffolding for the overall partnership, and the robust movement on geopolitical files in the lead-up means that progress could be announced. That being said, it will only be in the coming months when it will become clear if the commitments made on the trip materialize into tangible outcomes or fade as headlines without substance.

Canada has long been integrated into the American orbit, but even more so in recent times. Justin Trudeau’s father, Pierre Elliot Trudeau, was fiercely independent as Prime Minister. His task was to affirmatively establish what it meant to be Canada in the 1970s as the country sought true autonomy from Great Britain and in the face of rising separatism in Quebec. In many ways, he was a Canadian nationalist—and unapologetically Canada First, albeit at the expense of provincial rights.

After the end of the Cold War, the development of a Canadian nationalist ethos fell by the wayside. NAFTA eroded independent Canadian industry. The country’s identity slid towards the superficial, centering on hockey and beer. Most of all, being Canadian became reflexively about not being American. This meant pride in socialized services and milquetoast multiculturalism while ignoring the reality that these constructs were indulged via a free ride of (80-90 percent) integration with the world’s economic superpower.

The election of Barack Obama was a further disaster for Canadian politics. He was the image of America-lite that emotionally resonated with Canadians. His policies and movement could be aspirationally Canadian. Increased immigration. Multiculturalism. Socialized programs. The era led to a comingling of politics and the elite, including the policy apparatus across both sides of the aisle.

The notion of an independent Canada that could forge a proud nationalist identity left the station. With the rise of Trump in the mid-to-late 2010s, the elite coalesced on both sides of the border to sing the songs of opposition. Slogans became one and the same across the political spectrum. Black Lives Matter. Believe all women. Somehow, the case of Harvey Weinstein and the death of George Floyd were also Canadian issues of national import.

The unmooring of Canadian cultural independence dovetailed with inescapable economic dependency. When Biden returned the Democrats to power amidst the COVID pandemic, it further decimated Canadiana. The addiction to fiscal irresponsibility was put into hyperdrive north of the border just as it was in Washington, eschewing the budgetary balance championed by the previous incarnation of Mark Carney as a central banker (which had enabled Canada to sustain itself with strength during the global financial crisis).

As happened with the American left, the sloganeering of attacking the country’s foundations became mainstream. Even the foundational notions of an origin story laid down in the prominent Heritage Minutesseries to try to put forward a shared history and identity became taboo. The peer-pressured silencing of any dissent relegated Canada’s politics to an alphabetized soap opera of acronyms.

The harsh reality is that America is still the global power and monetary driver, while Canada is not. The United States can print its own money with abandon and still have a stronger currency than most of the world. It could question its core because, whatever it was showing culturally, its global power would always be its foundational frame, Democratic or Republican.

By the beginning of 2024, the problems in Canada were out in the open. This even caused then-Prime Minister Trudeau to reverse the government’s pro-immigration stance. Yet, what is affirmatively Canadian is still defined as not being American: multiculturalism and socialized services. This is why every political platform descends to a combination of new spending and rallies with diaspora communities. Canada is its parts, and there is no sum.

Canada First

Enter 2025, and Canada's very existence was put on the table. If Canadian power does not derive from the U.S., where does it come from? What does it mean to be Canadian? What is Canada? Politicians have no choice but to awaken from their slumber in such an environment. But their instincts are stuck in a deepening frame of underestimating American power and echoing the politics of discontent.

Nationalism and national identity, however, require an appeal to intrinsic national power and even chauvinism, not intangible global values or an apparitional rules-based order. After a decade of chipping away at the depth of Canadian identity, the political establishment still showcases “I am Canadian” by holding a beer and playing hockey.

Yet this is not Maple Leaf nationalism, but rather the artificial syrup of a hollow identity. To truly move forward, there needs to be a national reckoning of what it means to say, “I am Canadian.” An authentic, not performative, coherence must be built from this. The result should acknowledge shortcomings as a nation—yes—but also pride in Canada's greatness, including how it got there, in its history, in its heroes, and all its hues—brown, black, and white.

In a complex world where every country is flawed, racist, and has done evil, original sins are everywhere. They must be acknowledged, addressed, and redressed. But they cannot be wielded to disintegrate national identity.

Surviving in an America First World

Ultimately, identity can only take a nation so far. A country needs the tools of power, namely military and monetary might, especially for one as large as Canada. The last 80 years are not instructive, as they were defined by an American monetary and military umbrella. Achieving true sovereignty will require asking real questions and arriving at solutions.

What is needed for Canada to defend its Arctic border without America? How can Canada build high-speed rail at the rate of China? When can Canada have its own car companies emerge? What is the strong economic and cultural frame that can sustainably support multiculturalism and socialized services?

The truth is that Canada and Canadians have not had to be masters of their destiny, perhaps ever. That time has arrived. And the conversation is just beginning.

Is Prime Minister Mark Carney up to the task to lead the way?

Most media coverage is centered on a retrospective of what has already happened, as seen in ABC’s exclusive interview with President Trump. Trump himself is trying to manage optics on social media. The next 100 days, however, will bring new dynamics and issues to the fore.

The focus will move from government restructuring, illegal immigration, and opening salvos on global economic policy to intense global deal-making, expansive domestic initiatives, and legislative action. The scale of these developments may overshadow current debates, as intense as they are. Those stuck in the weeds of polling, the vicissitudes of the markets, and the overall political back-and-forth will miss far greater shifts.

Here are five trend lines to pay attention to through August 29, 2025.

1. Geopolitical dealmaking in the spotlight

The coming period will see a higher pace of travel and foreign meetings. Whether that will include a face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi or Russian President Putin remains to be seen. President Trump will embark soon to the Gulf as his first major trip, prioritizing inward investment to the U.S. Until now, the President’s only travel was for the funeral of Pope Francis.

Major geopolitical files, from the Ukraine War to the Gaza Crisis, will receive even more attention. The ongoing negotiations with Iran will go into overdrive, and outreach could begin again on the Korean Peninsula. The drama of these developments and Trump’s travel abroad will drive the news cycle and overshadow other issues.

2. A cascade of trade deals in the pipeline

There was an apoplectic reaction when President Trump scrapped NAFTA during his first term. Yet, serious negotiations began within months, with a new deal reached in just over a year. There will be a furious drive to close trade deals fast. The first agreements to be announced could be with South Korea, Japan, India,Vietnam, Australia and the United Kingdom.

The ‘big fish’ is China, although the final alignment may take a while. Similarly, negotiations with the European Union and its member states will be fraught. Nevertheless, once an initial set of deals gets made, it will generate momentum for others. This will not mitigate the effects of already-enacted tariffs, nor will deals be reached universally. In addition, Trump remains committed to some tariffs across the board and the External Revenue Service.

3. Capitol Hill as the center of attention

In the initial months of the administration, there has not been much ‘action’ on Capitol Hill. Congress approved a continuing resolution to fund the government through the end of September. The first test will be an attempt at recission to claw back government spending, partly in response to the efforts of DOGE.

This will give way to the challenge of comprehensive legislation for the overall Trump agenda. It will move in phases, encompassing tax, trade, deregulation, and spending, with an initial component potentially coming up for vote in July. The horse-trading that will take place may put the president at odds at times with members of the GOP and will also test the ground for bipartisanship.

4. Brinksmanship between the judiciary and the executive

The number of cases before federal courts is already dizzying and set to increase. Most of these involve immigration, but they also relate to attempts at government restructuring. As cases go to the Supreme Court, some rulings will probably go against the White House, leading to a standoff. As in the Abrego Garcia case, the Supreme Court may leave more contentious aspects ambiguous. Whether the brinkmanship between the White House and the Supreme Court rises to a true constitutional crisis will become clear soon.

5. Activation of the 250^th anniversary

Starting July 4^th, the countdown will begin towards America’s 250^th anniversary, ahead of the 2026 mid-terms. In attempting to ‘Make America Great Again,’ the Trump White House envisions grand projects revitalizing America. Aside from some initiatives in AI, building ‘new’ things has been far from view. However, this will likely change and could include announcements for so-called Freedom Cities, the Golden Dome, and space exploration.

In Trump 2.5: A Primer, several key principles—sovereignty, strength, modernization, efficiency, and traditionalism—are outlined that guide the administration. The focus now shifts to translating them into outcomes. It will become apparent by the end of the summer whether the Trump 2.5 agenda has momentum or is faltering.

With the pace of change picking up, the time for reflection and reaction is over. Attention from both partisans and observers should quickly turn to what comes next to navigate the way forward or be left behind.