Sudden geopolitical events today quickly become a feature of our global environment. While this has normalized intractable problems, each successive crisis – the Gaza war, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and now the Iran-Israel confrontation – creates additional stress on economic and political systems held together by loose threads in today’s new American era.*
On the early morning of Friday, June 13 local time, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, killing senior political and military leadership, as well as striking sensitive targets. The operation involved months of planning, as well as intelligence assets that had infiltrated Iran. Iran responded the same evening with ballistic missiles, striking the heart of Tel Aviv. Bringing the war to an end becomes ever more challenging the longer it continues. For example, the India-Pakistan flare-up in May 2025 lasted only four days, a period already surpassed in the Iran-Israel war of 2025.
There is no single analysis that can explain what is happening or may happen. In addition, the fast-moving situation is caught in a web of politicization and misinformation. This post provides a guide for the days ahead, covering the state of play, what led to this moment, domestic political considerations (in the US), the scenarios in play, and possible pathways to peace. There are several takeaways to frame the situation:
Israel has clear military supremacy, and its initial attack created shockwaves. However, the Iranian counterresponse has also surprised and been unprecedented for Israel.
Without the full backing of America and even direct engagement, Israel will be limited in what it can achieve, and the longer it proceeds, the more likely the U.S. will intervene.
There is no obvious path away from war. The economic repercussions are likely to be absorbed by markets in the short term, reducing immediate pressure to conclude the hostilities.
While there is an attrition of forces, there are also weapons and capabilities on both sides that have yet to be deployed. At the ten-day mark, if the conflict is still ongoing, there could be a marked escalation and a series of events that may surprise both sides. One wildcard is that at any given moment, President Trump could insist on a negotiated outcome and force a ceasefire.
*The clinical nature of this post is not intended to disregard the costs of war, the human suffering on all sides, and nationalist perspectives held by various parties to the conflict. Those should be discussed, but are best left to other forums.
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