There’s a Vibe Shift in the Empire
Placing Trump’s America in the modern era
November 8, 2016. It was time. America would elect its first woman president – Hillary Clinton. A journey that began almost a half-century earlier when she was a Goldwater Girl was about to reach its intended destination. What was meant to be a coronation and celebration turned instead into chaos and carnage. The election of Donald Trump to the presidency sent shockwaves throughout the United States and around the world. What had happened and why? How had this brash businessman dislodged the entire establishment on both sides of the political divide? Why did so many Americans support this man? Was it a whitelash?
In the void of understanding, the prevailing analysis centered on white men. The election had, after all, come amidst a precipitous drop in life expectancy in the country, mostly among young white men. Unemployment. Suicides. Opioid overdoses. A narrative began to take shape and was linked to the same sources of frustration that drove Bernie Sanders’ popularity on the Democratic side.
Perhaps globalization was not as kind as everyone had been led to believe. A large part of the country had been hollowed out, and people were reeling and feeling despair. They were forgotten and needed a leader. Hillary Clinton used the term ‘deplorables’ on the campaign trail, and it soon became a self-referential mantra adopted by the new right. In the absence of a political establishment that responded to their concerns, this group of deplorables turned to a populist savior: Donald J. Trump.
By May 2017, this accepted narrative had been displaced by ‘Russia, Russia, Russia.’ A special counsel was appointed to get to the bottom of this realization that Trump was not a legitimate president but a Manchurian candidate. Then came the Ukraine impeachment. Then, January 6. Then, multiple court cases. The populist savior was, in fact, a fascist bent on destroying democracy, and his supporters were racist insurrectionists. It was time to put Trump and the MAGA movement into the dustbin of history once and for all. The moment called for restoring norms and institutions and to achieve a clean break with everything that Trump represented.
Fast-forward to November 5, 2024—another earthquake landed. Donald Trump won a decisive electoral mandate that included the popular vote. The coalition of voters that brought Trump back to the presidency was also more diverse than ever. He won the majority of the Native American vote. Arab Americans. Latino men.
What was going on? This was not a whitelash. This was a vibe shift.
As Trump and his team prepare to return to the White House on January 20, 2025, something is in the air that transcends the president-elect and his movement.
There is a vibe shift in the empire, and it will shape politics and policy for decades.
Dimensions of a vibe shift
Since World War II, the interplay between the politics of the moment and the vibe shift of the day has been a dominant undercurrent, reinforced by the rise of media and interconnectivity.
But what constitutes a vibe shift?
Generational capture
As each generation enters adulthood, it shapes the political discourse as a new voting bloc. Generations already within the political landscape may be affected by a traumatic event, such as a war, economic crisis, or social phenomenon, altering their views. Finally, as generations move through life, their priorities change.
Cultural evolution
Driven by a dance between religion, liberalization, orthodoxy, heterodoxy, and socialization, culture is in constant flux, often like a pendulum of reaction and counterreaction. This plays out in tandem with generational change and influences the broader cultural milieu of the time.
Elite reorganization
New ideas emerge new institutions are formed, and new individuals become successful, fostering a new plank in the elite base. This new elite plank sometimes integrates into the old elite but often challenges conventions and creates a new ethos with an imbued sense of power.
Sentiment reorientation
The convergence of generational capture, cultural evolution, and elite organization affects public sentiment, which reorients. A previously settled issue becomes open and renegotiated, sometimes gradually but often suddenly. A previous taboo is shattered once pierced and quickly vanishes.
Nomenclature formation
As all of this comes together, new nomenclature becomes the norm, reflecting the vibe shift that grows in ubiquity and cements the change in the country's consciousness. The politics of the day can both drive the nomenclature and benefit from it, primarily through social media, to reinforce the vibe shift.
Eras of the Empire
These elements come together to precipitate a vibe shift at any given time, spanning years. There is no clear start or endpoint. Breaking down the transition of vibe shifts in the modern era across the years is also more an interpretive art than a science. Each vibe shift also underpins the ensuing shift. This rebalancing creates opportunities and new challenges, and those challenges foster a new consciousness of militating for change. In effect, the ability of America to absorb each successive shift is arguably its most significant driver of re-generation and is directly enhanced by the open nature of the democracy that facilitates both discourse and political change.
A New American Dream (1950s)
During World War II, almost 40% of America’s GDP was tied to the war economy. Half a million young men lost their lives, and millions more were injured on the battlefield. After the hard-earned victory, there was a search for respite. Meanwhile, millions of women, with men abroad, had gained unprecedented opportunities to enter the workforce and play a more significant role in society.
In the 1950s, television ownership went from 9% at the beginning of the decade to close to 90% by the end. This brought successive technological developments and milestones into the public consciousness, even when they happened further afield. Spaceflight, vaccines, computers, nuclear energy – something was happening. It fostered a sense of Americana and the age of the possible.
The vibe of a new American dream began to reverberate. Each American could buy their own home. They could have a stable life that was upwardly mobile. American cities became places of congregation and cultural creativity. Without a war, the country could focus on domestic priorities. The interstate highway expanded the spirit of possibility and connection.
It is no wonder that an optimistic president was elected at the end of the decade, John F. Kennedy, who also sought to inspire America and the world by announcing a project to go to the moon. And then, on November 22, 1963, he was assassinated. This came just one year after the Cuban missile crisis had set the country on the brink of nuclear armageddon. Race riots were becoming commonplace as white supremacy reared its ugly head in the face of potential Black political and economic empowerment. Meanwhile, women in the workplace quickly realized they were still second-class citizens.
The American dream had limits.
Fighting the Man (1960s & 1970s)
The 1960s were full of turmoil. Amidst assassinations, wars, and riots, the population had had enough. It was time for change. The generational moment was ripe as the baby boomers, the largest cohort in America, began to come of age. Protests soon were abundant across university campuses in response to the draft and the Vietnam War.
The vibe shift that unfolded went beyond war and peace or any one issue. It broadened to be anti-establishment in all forms. And why wouldn’t it? With each victory, however, came another defeat and deafening blow. The assassination of Malcolm X and then Martin Luther King Jr. after the Civil Rights Act epitomized this. The sense that the establishment was the enemy only grew. An American president was soon caught in a landmark scandal and had to resign.
Globally, anti-colonialism was on the march, and the shackles and vestiges of European empires were being removed. That international convergence created a vibe shift that encompassed all realms. The problems were systemic and total. The answer was revolution. The answer was liberation. Socially and culturally, drug use and sexuality were part of this experimental liberation.
There were no restrictions on displacing all types of orthodoxy. Yet, this vibe shift did not manifest itself in the ultimate political leadership, the presidency. Instead, political representation modeled the rebelliousness of the vibe shift, manifesting through protests, activist movements, and militant outfits.
This political thought was intertwined with other pillars of society, particularly civic groups, academia, and the media. This vibe shift captured American campuses and, in effect, never let go for half a century. In some senses, it even reached the Supreme Court, which ruled in favor of permissive abortion laws in the landmark Roe v. Wade decision.
As the 1970s came to a close, the economy was in despair at home. Abroad, revolutionaries had transformedinto autocrats. Meanwhile, no socialist, communist, or radical left movement had found proper political footing in the U.S. It was clear that the answers would not come simply from overthrowing what was old. There needed to be a clear direction.
Meanwhile, the baby boomers began to have families. They began to age. And the search for prosperity in capitalism started to become attractive once again. Stability and security were sought after.
Born-again Mavericks (1980s)
In 1980, Ronald Reagan was elected marking a break with the past and in line with the emerging vibe shift in America. The bravado of modern America found firm footing in the ensuing years. After decades of being discredited, the establishment started to pay dividends, and America's promise began to re-inspire.
It is no surprise that the action movies of the 1980s were ubiquitous. It was America on a rampage. It was winning wars and vanquishing enemies. The covers of Time Magazine were glossy-full of Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and the other techno-industrialists of America in the 1980s. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, it was the era of greed being good. The markets climbed at home and abroad.
Orthodoxies were reinforced across the board as the establishment asserted itself, perhaps in a re-invented form. Born-again Christianity gave structure to many Americans. With young families dotting cityscapes, tolerance for crime and chaos waned. The support for aggressive policing grew, leading to municipal leaders obsessed with crime fighting.
This vibe shift tested the sentiments of the country's largest cohort, the baby boomers, who came of age with a spirit of ‘fighting the man.’ Underneath the surface, other fissures would have consequences later. Whether it was the differentiated racial experiences throughout the country, the underbelly of American capitalism exposed by the 1987 crash, or the slow decline of America’s cities of production, like Detroit, there was cause for concern.
America for All (1990s)
And then, just like that, the Cold War was over. America won. The Berlin Wall fell. The Iron Curtain was gone. America was left standing as the shining beacon on the hill. It was time for Pax Americana, for unprecedented prosperity for America and the world. There were no limits. It was time to solve the problems at home and abroad once and for all. Whatever anxieties may have existed quickly dissipated.
Bill Clinton was elected president at the relatively young age of 47 and became emblematic of the baby boomer generation. This generation, which drove the vibe shift of ‘fighting the man,’ was finally in the political establishment. At the time, America was also running a budget surplus. Growing prosperity meant that everyone could be included in the American dream. Music and movies demonstrated this giddiness and the possibility of utopian American leadership.
With unprecedented American power and everyone getting along, there was no need for wars. America was criticized not for getting involved in wars but for avoiding them. It had a ‘Responsibility to Protect.’ The world’s problems were America’s problems, and thus, the Millennium Development Goals were born. While the Rodney King riots showed that America needed healing, in 2003, when the affirmative action case finally reached the Supreme Court, it was upheld.
If there were existential challenges, it was from domestic white terrorists. The Unabomber. The Oklahoma City Bombing. Waco, Texas. The vestiges of an old way of thinking needed to be dismantled to give way to a more inclusive era. Meanwhile, in Silicon Valley, a new dotcom boom meant this was a new time of rewards for everyone. With stability and unprecedented prosperity, the time was now to remake America in a better way beyond the strictures of its foundations.
America Interrupted (2000s)
In 2000, the dot-com bubble burst. Then, the 9/11 attacks arrived with a thud. They contrasted sharply with the vibe of the time. Darkness had reared its ugly head. Perhaps peace and solace were not guaranteed. Enemies abroad needed to be confronted. The home front needed to be reinforced on a patriotic footing.
Political strategist Karl Rove found a way to harness the born-again generation that defined the 1980s and coalesce these communities of religious revival on the national stage. This nonlinear path interrupted the unrequited agenda of the 1970s, which was beginning to take shape in the establishment of the 1990s: a future based on the emancipation of communities and the dismantlement of the foundations that had led to people being left behind.
The idea that the vibe shift was manufactured from the top betrays the grassroots feelings that propelled a new sense of American patriotism, especially after the September 11 attacks. After all, President George Bush was re-elected after the invasion of Iraq with a demonstrable share of the popular vote. Americans voluntarily enlisted in the military at record levels in 2001 and 2002.
Yet, something was amiss. It felt like a restoration of the old, like the same Wall Street operating to the detriment of the wider population. The echoes of an oppressive establishment from the 1970s began to resonate: Abu Ghraib, the Patriot Act, Guantanamo Bay, and the rollback of women’s rights. As millennials came of age, this did not make sense contrasted with their upbringing and childhood in the 1990s, which promised an America for all.
‘America interrupted’ began to falter, and the vibe shift started to snap back dramatically.
Forwards not Backwards (2010s)
It was no surprise that Barack Obama was elected to the presidency. And as soon as he was, he won the Nobel Peace Prize. The vibe shift needed someone to carry the banner of the future, turning the page on the past. America was not going back to a backward era.
The promise of the 1990s, interrupted by the 9/11 era, needed to be delivered irreversibly across society. With new pillars of economic dominance in Silicon Valley and the rise of new tech titans, there was also a path to remake the financial elite. Then, the Green Revolution in Iran erupted, followed by the Arab Spring. Maybe revolution around the world was possible through a convergence of technology and the American political establishment?
Domestically, the vibe shift was clear: full steam ahead. This meant a continuous stream of liberalization on racial and social issues, from gay rights to representation. There would be no limits this time, as this circle needed to be squared once and for all. Thus, every vertical in society, from media to corporate boards to federal contracting, would be affected.
This brought new voices to the fore and a youthful dynamism to America at home and on the global stage. Particularly in the early 2010s, after the financial crisis, there was tremendous growth and opportunity. The United States felt new, and a feeling of reinvention was afoot.
Yet there was a problem. This was not only an American age. China was lurking. And not all people around the world believed in this future, as dark forces like ISIS showed. A more profound challenge was that dismantling America’s underlying power structure would become impractical. That part of the 1970s vision that had found its way from the Baby Boomers to the Millennials had to be deferred.
When establishment political figures left their positions at the Obama White House, they went to Silicon Valleyand Wall Street, to big pharma or big philanthropy, and to the lobby shops of Washington DC. Why dismantle these pools of capital when they could take them over and ensure representation of the groups left behind in the country?
Unchecked illegal migration depressing wage growth in concert with sending manufacturing abroad simply did not register with those in power. The sentiment was Occupy Wall Street was flawed as a movement, Bernie Sanders was misguided, and there was nothing substantially wrong with the economic structure of the United States.
When Donald Trump was elected in 2016, the majority of the country, by popular vote, agreed narrowly with the prevailing establishment. Trump was wrong. His movement was wrong. The country did not need fixing if it wasn’t broken.
Capital of Freedom (2020s-?)
The COVID pandemic highlighted the divergent reality between the liberalized elite and the working class. Working from home made sense if you were not an Uber delivery driver, and remote learning was logical if you had childcare. The unlimited budgets of the pandemic era were nice if you invested in real estate but not if the price of groceries exceeded what you could afford due to inflation.
The political establishment had coalesced around inclusion and the distribution of gains. Yet, not everyone was included in the economic dividend. The globalized economy left working-age members of all races behind in America.
America was also losing the battle of creating value. Globalization, the vision of the 1990s resurrected in the 2010s, no longer seemed practical. Without a core industrial base, a grand economic vision of America was crumbling. The pride of a country and its ethos of ingenuity was slowly drifting. There was a void. What even was America?
Today’s vibe shift seeks a return to unbridled and unburdened possibility and belief in America. There is a rejection of identity hierarchies and a preference for ‘work’ over ‘woke.’ And there is a desire to break the strictures of taboo – and a heavy disrespect for authority. There has also been a re-assertion of whiteness. Yet, this feeling found allies in a vibe shift across working-age populations of all races, men, and Generation Z. 56 percent of men between the ages of 18 and 29 voted for Donald Trump.
The shift is not limited to the ‘deplorables’ but cascades to the top, to the world’s richest man, Elon Musk. In 2024, it has a vast geographic reach and diverse composition. The contagion effect due to new forms of media is pervasive.
Embedded in the vibe shift is a dominant feeling of freedom and capital. The idea is that government capture of gains is a flawed concept. Why send money for wars abroad that could lead to World War III? Why enable more government spending that will only lead to further inflation? After all, are the companies of AI and crypto, not the future economic drivers? Perhaps it is time for capital to be free in the capital of the world’s economy.
The anti-government feeling of the shift also leads to rejecting all establishment directives, whether from academia, experts, or the media. Why should there be censorship of misinformation? For Generation Z, which freely streams content, why would the government or an ‘expert’ limit what they can say? The vibe shift of the current moment ironically very much echoes the 1970s. It dovetails, however, with the vibe shift of the 1950s, marrying ‘fighting the man’ with the promise of a ‘new American dream’ driven by private capital rather than the public purse. In this case, however, the man may be gender-neutral.
This vibe shift is the most evocative America has seen in the modern era. After January 20, as more Americans are exposed to it and it is further legitimated, it will only become more pronounced.
There is and will be growing opposition and counter-movements.
The Search for Meaning
The coming era will witness a rising spirit of excessive American jingoism and an attitude of cultural irreverence. Everyday disrespect in crude ways to those seen as fighting the vibe shift may become commonplace. And legitimate concerns of identity-based groups will be tossed to the wayside. In addition, key institutions and policies may be dismantled in favor of anti-authority positions and people. In effect, a phenomenon on a societal level could occur, such as throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Nevertheless, the upside may be unprecedented. A spirit of cultural openness will push boundaries like never before, and bold ingenuity, like that of the 1980s and 1920s, will resurface. This could lead to step-change accomplishments. The 250th anniversary of American independence will supercharge a drive for ‘big ideas.’
Those in the political world may mistake the moment and what it requires. Curtailing its excesses will be vital to ensuring its sustainability. Those who seek to stand in the way may conversely be better suited to ensure the shift benefits all in the diverse landscape of America.
Finally, with such a powerful vibe shift on the scene, the omnipresent American war machine will seek to be part of the transformation. There could be dire consequences as the broader military-industrial complex seeks to embed itself at the core of the vibe shift, as it has in every past decade. This is already happening, as companies like Palantir and Anduril and their founders are central to the vibe shift, Trump's political rise, and the movement's composition. America will always need a strong military apparatus, but it must be in the service of the political system and not vice versa.
Positive Vibration
As the vibe shift unfolds, fighting it is futile in the short term. As always, each vibe shift in America always leads to the next one, and the same pattern will, of course, repeat.
For now, the words of Bob Marley echo wisely:
If you get down and you quarrel every day
You're saying prayers to the devils, I say!
Why not help one another on the way?
Make it much easier, yeah, yeah (just a little bit easier)
Say you just can't live that negative way
If you know what I mean
Make way for the positive day.