It went fast and furious between Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (or MTG) and President Donald Trump last week. After a back-and-forth, in which Greene – a MAGA stalwart – released private texts she had sent the president, he labelled her Marjorie “Traitor” Greene.
Meanwhile, Tucker Carlson released a documentary on his network on the ‘real story’ of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. In response, the FBI created a special crisis account on X, putting the administration at loggerheads with its high-profile ally.
As that was unfolding, long-time Trump booster, Stephen Bannon, while fighting for populism in public, was revealed as being all over the Epstein Files in private.
With the economic and political headwinds facing the White House, the infighting and contradictions within the MAGA movement have reached fever-pitch levels.
Is this the beginning of the end? Is Trump 2.5 giving way to Trump 0.5?
Zero Hour
President Trump stands at the ultimate inflection point in his presidency. With a string of stinging political losses, he faces a multifaceted rebellion from within the GOP. MAGA faithful are rising up while the perpetual Republican establishment bucks his broader calls for alignment. This is partly due to early positioning for the 2026 and 2028 electoral cycles. It is, however, more about the fracturing of an always improbable coalition rife with paradoxes.
In response to the dissent, the mercurial president has deployed his most familiar defense: a scorched-earth offense. Yet, in that course of action, he may induce a retreat of his own frame to his former self, restoring the markings of the mid-point of his first term: Trump 0.5.
Then, he was very much alone, had discarded his populist cloak for mundane Republicanism, and was still attacked by all sides. Gary Cohn walked the West Wing, and soon after, John Bolton flew on the wings of Air Force One. There was no MTG yet. Tucker Carlson was still on Fox News. Elon Musk was a Democrat. Epstein had not yet been arrested. Generation Z was just entering adulthood. COVID and inflation were unknowns. The Israel Lobby was too taboo to discuss.
President Trump faces a choice at this pivotal moment: continue down the current path reducing his presidency to a coterie of supporters or renew a big-tent push to be the pragmatic bridge between the elite and a base motivated by populism.
Trump 2.5 or Trump 0.5.
The Rise of Trump 2.5
On July 13, 2024, the day Donald Trump was nearly assassinated. It was an earthquake in the political zeitgeist. Elon Musk endorsed him. Mark Zuckerberg called him “badass.” The ‘coolest’ figures online from Sneako to Theo Von to Adin Ross backed him; when he won, they all showed up to the inauguration. Yes, it was ‘cool’ for a very brief moment to be all the way with the Donald for a subset of the electorate.
“If President Trump had won re-election in 2020, it would have been a continuation of the first term, with slightly more accomplishments, the same fecklessness, and infighting to jockey for the future of the Republican Party. It would have been Trump 2.0. Instead, in an almost Lazarus-like moment, Trump’s return and decisive victory give him an unprecedented mandate. His organization has clear capabilities that were missing in the first term. The current president is no ordinary second-term president. He has had four years to regroup, understand who his opponents are, and ensure that there is an effective team. The trials and tribulations he faced also led to newfound allies beyond the inner group from 2016 and 2020.” p.44-45, Trump 2.5: A Primer
In the early days of 2025, despite all the vitriol, the DOGE destruction, the cold raids by ICE, and the shock-and-awe of tariffs, the President barely lost a step in the court of public opinion with his supporters, maintaining his approval ratings. When he spoke of peace in the halls of Riyadh’s palatial settings, amidst the billions of dollars flowing including to his allies, it was a stark juxtaposition . And he followed his words by meeting with Syria’s president, a former leader of Al Qaeda.
Trump 2.5 was not about either/or. It was about both/and. He hadn’t abandoned Israel; the antisemitism task force targeting its critics was in full force. He hadn’t given up on America’s vast military-industrial complex; everyone from Larry Fink to Elon Musk was on that trip and ready to partake in the riches. As the president returned to Washington, his second 100 days were being primed to go as well as the first for his base.
The End of the Honeymoon
In retrospect, the month that followed was the end of the beginning. Elon Musk emerged in the Oval Office upon his ‘retirement’ from government service with a black eye that remains unexplained to this day. He went on X, announced that Trump was in the Epstein files, and claimed to be setting up a new party. Then the administration backed Israel in a widening war in the Middle East and initiated an American-led attack on Iran. And the Epstein files, in the middle of all of this, were cast aside with a perfunctory 2-page memo released on the July 4 weekend.
Nevertheless, despite the pushback, the Rorschach of Trump held the movement together. Like all followers and their centripetal leaders, blame fell to the people around Trump, not on the president himself: He was being ‘led astray’ by advisors, by his chief of staff, by outsiders texting him at late hours.
This all changed at the beginning of September when Charlie Kirk was assassinated. What may have been a unifying moment became a breaking point, as key figures sought to elevate their narrow agendas in his image.
In the weeks prior, to avoid potential fallout from a vote on the release of the Epstein files, Speaker Johnson shut down the House. By the end of September, the government itself shut down due to a lack of a continuing resolution. President Trump shifted his focus abroad and announcement after announcement with billionaires by his side. With Congress out of session and the president seemingly detached from domestic affairs, the November 4 electoral results were a rude awakening.
Mamdani takes Manhattan. Virginia goes blue. Democrats had wind in their sails. Republicans were in disarray.
In response to the results, the president doubled down. As the affordability issue cast a long shadow across the political spectrum, he held a private dinner for bankers and billionaires at the White House. With greater calls for transparency from his base, the president instead attempted to browbeat congresswomen in the situation room to vote against the release of the Epstein files.
This prompted a severe backlash online, with prominent figures directly attacking President Trump from within the MAGA movement, a previous red line. Marjorie Taylor Greene stood prominently among them.
Was this the end of MAGA? The end of Trump 2.5?
Populism, Purity and Pragmatism
What made Trump 2.5 politically poignant was an unyieldingly America First position. While polarizing, brutal, and assuredly slightly authoritarian, it was populist and popular with his supporters. Jobs for citizens before immigrants. American interests before foreign ones. Peace, not war, as the first resort. Main Street over Wall Street. The heartland was the new center, not Washington, D.C. The end of waste, fraud, and abuse and the return of domestic investment would give way to a new golden age.
Ultimately, the rhetoric of pragmatic populism pushed Trump 2.0 to Trump 2.5 and engendered an inconceivably diverse governing coalition that built momentum in early 2025. Tulsi Gabbard was shoulder-to-shoulder with Marco Rubio. There was a green light for an outside hammer from DOGE, but also the insider track from Susie Wiles. Yes, to Israel, but no to Israel’s wars. Deals for billionaires, but to create jobs, not greed, grift, and graft. At least that was the message on paper.
Trump, his presidency, and the movement were accessible to the everyday American, online and offline. Candidate Trump was on every podcast and in every public setting. He styled himself as the man to lead a lost generation Z of men. With the initial euphoria across the first 100 days, and before any foreign trips, it was a honeymoon, and Trump 2.5 maintained the aura of pragmatic populism within the MAGA movement.
Crossing the Crucible
It could be asked today, where is the rhetoric of the forgotten men and women, and the end of forever wars? Where are the Generation Z podcasters? Where have all the Trump 2.5 cowboys gone? This fall lull may yet give way to the big-tent version of Trump who campaigned in 2024.
The crucible moment that the president now finds himself in was always inevitable. It was exacerbated by foreign trips and too many meetings in the Oval Office rather than gatherings with his base in Ohio, Oklahoma, Idaho, and across the country. Ultimately, the president was only hearing part of the message from his own movement.
“As always, it will come down to outcomes. If, by the midterms, there is demonstrable progress on government efficiency, economic growth, global conflicts, and immigration, that will overshadow much of the overreach undertaken to achieve it.” – p. 173, Trump 2.5: A Primer
With just under a year to go, the president needs to have a hard reset to regain momentum, prevent a lame-duck presidency, and avoid a relapse to Trump 0.5 and the Grand Old Party. While some in the MAGA movement may look to 2028 and a post-Trump future, there is no MAGA without the man and myth that is the Donald, for better or worse. Without the bombast of Trump, there will be no railroading of an establishment that his base desires. Donald Trump is both the problem and solution for the movement’s biggest internal detractors.
There is a playbook for the White House to return to Trump 2.5. It starts with a re-embrace of pragmatic populism with real results. It also includes a renewed big-tent approach and an open door to messaging to all parts of the movement, online and offline. The president himself is in constant motion, and his own adaptability, which some would call opportunism, enabled him to return to the presidency in 2025.
Late into Sunday evening (Nov 16), ahead of another weekly political cycle, President Trump gave his full backing to Tucker Carlson, did not condemn Nick Fuentes, and called on his party to vote for the release of the Epstein files. It was the beginning of his answer for the moment to bring back momentum.
Thanksgiving Dinner
As zero hour approaches, there is a narrow window to shift course. This Thanksgiving, if President Trump is smart, he will host dinner at the largest table possible. Susie Wiles would have to use all her shrewdness to bring everyone into the fold. Elon Musk. Tucker Carlson. Mark Levin. Stephen Bannon. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Bill Ackman. Bishara Bahbah. Larry Fink. Sean O’Brien.
The message at that dinner is that they should be thankful they have access to power, because in a few years, they may not. And in fact, they could become the targets of those in power. Their only chance to win is to emerge with an ‘America First,’ populist pact that permits private gains only if there are public gains.
Will this happen? Is it too late? Was Trump 2.5 just a mirage? And could it even hold? For the GOP, it is simply the only way forward to maintain power. For MAGA to have relevance. For President Trump to be effective. Whether or not that would be good for America and the world is another question.
It was exactly three years ago that a Special Counsel was appointed to investigate Donald Trump. That was meant to be the end for Trump 1.0. And instead it was the beginning of the rise of Trump 2.5.
The next political cycle is already being written before the ink is dry on this one.
Stay tuned.